Vučić to decide if Nestorović will join him: Evasions and maneuvers in forming Belgrade government

The strategy for finding the way out of the Belgrade government crisis, that would suit the former – at least on paper – leader of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) Aleksandar Vučić, includes several evasions and one maneuver. Evade the international investigation into irregularities in the December elections, with a solution that would leave as little room for speculation as possible, and evade mass citizen protests, evade new elections if it is in any way possible, and also, if possible, form the government, but not by securing majority only with the help of two switchers from the list of We – Voice of the People (Mi - glas naroda).

Although the Progressives have lately been prone to saying “let’s go to elections”, if they actually and truly wanted new elections and if Vučić were completely certain of a new, this time a majority win, the former mayor and the assembly member candidates would not be standing in front of the Belgrade City Assembly building, announcing the postponement of the constituent session. They would enter the assembly hall, together with the already confirmed switchers, Aleksandar Jerković and his colleague, as well as the remaining four from the list of Mi - glas naroda, led by Branimir Nestorović. More than enough for a quorum. In fact, 60 potential assembly members had registered to attend in writing before the session - SNS, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), and the entire Mi - glas naroda movement.

And then there would have been various scenarios available, depending on the level of drama one would want to achieve.

First – it could have been very dramatic, unexpected, a plot that nobody had anticipated. Before entering the hall and before the quorum, the switchers could have been told not to vote for the proposed Speaker of the Assembly, and Nestorović who, as he says, is in favor of new elections, could have abstained from voting, as he had said earlier that he would.

Assembly Speaker would not have been elected, and without this, members of the assembly could not have accepted their mandates. The City Assembly would not have been constituted and it would only remain for the National Assembly Speaker, when elected, to call for new Belgrade election. We would have been following the events all day, maybe even for several days. There would, of course, be reactions and analyses of how and why the confirmed switchers did not vote...

NIN / Mitar Mitrović

If we rule out any gameplaying, and on the condition that no one has a problem with new elections and a sure win, the things could have been much easier and much simpler. Claiming loudly that the SNS-led coalition had a sufficient number of assembly members to form the government, and stating that the bar of government legitimacy was raised high, they could have just added “even so, we will have new elections”. “We don’t have a satisfactory majority, one that is strong and efficient enough to carry out everything that lies ahead, the bridges, the roads, EXPO...”.

With this, cleaner approach – if they wanted elections – nothing would be delayed and there would be no buying time. There would be no relaxing the situation to see how everyone reacts. No testing the European Union’s response to the claim of secured majority and simultaneously announcing a new election because it is about “satisfying the legitimacy requirement” that is, respecting the will of the people. Of course, the legitimacy of the December elections and the voter lists would remain unquestionable for SNS and Vučić.

In its last issue, NIN has already stated that the Progressives, despite securing majority, will try to ensure that it doesn’t rely solely on the switcher Aleksandar Jerković and his colleague. Not because they do not want the majority and power, but because under current circumstances, where the opposition demands elections and the EU Parliament demands investigation – it is not the most ideal solution. Formation of the Assembly with two public switchers would not have been a problem if there hadn’t been the question of how much they were paid. And, by all accounts, the political profile of those same switchers is not appropriate. Also, such a solution would certainly cause protests, as well as more condemnation from the EU institutions. Finally, this solution does not even keep up the appearance of form, which Vučić insists on.

Not much has changed from what we knew then to this issue of NIN. The most ideal solution would still be to have the rest of Nestorović’s movement join the majority. The four who remained loyal to the controversial doctor, according to SNS’ estimate, would secure a majority that would have some semblance of the will of the people.

NIN / Mitar Mitrović

Even though we always seem to be in an election cycle of some kind, it is clear, the message of the Progressives is that elections are causing us to lose precious time. Who will be blamed for that loss, for “delaying everything that is planned to be done for Belgrade and its citizens?” Of course, Nestorović. According to official information from SNS, the session of the City Assembly was postponed despite the secured majority so that the controversial doctor and conspiracy theorist would be given more time to think things through. And this happens nearly two months after the elections, and after him changing his attitude already... As a reminder, Nestorović first said that he would help to form a majority if the opposition tried to overthrow the government by force.

He also talked about a new Maidan. And then the opposition held protests and the Progressives called them attempted Maidan for days. And then days went by, and Nestorović never even mentions Maidan anymore, nor the abandonment of the Franco-German plan for Kosovo as a condition for cooperation. Now he is all in favor of elections. Except for various unofficial rumors, we were unable to get a clear confirmation of what Nestorović was supposed to think about in the week ahead and if he had asked for a more prominent position for himself or his movement, whether in the city or in the Republic, in order to participate in the majority.

In that case, the time to think things through was not intended for him. There is a theory circulating in the other majority, the one at the national level, that Nestorović, no matter what he says, is in his natural habitat with SNS and SPS. Postponement of the session is, in fact, not extra time for Nestorović to think, because the dilemma is not his, it’s Aleksandar Vučić’s. What would cost him more – to call new elections, where he would probably need Nestorović again, or to use him up this early. Considering that Dveri and Milica the Oath Keeper have disappeared from the Belgrade stage, Nestorović is the only, let’s call it right-wing option that he currently has left and that he needs.

In case that things don’t go in the desired direction, even with the option of forming a new assembly member group – comprised of switchers which, as rumor has it, beside the current two, would also include three “sleeper agents” from the opposition – new elections will be held. Definitely the best solution. Under what conditions, though? Although they are announcing them, nobody from the government has yet specified those conditions. Will any criticism from the Resolution of the European Parliament be taken into account and then put into practice? Based on which voter lists and what would they be like?...