“Knock, knock, Maria. Guten Tag, good morning, this is the interpreter. Literally like a punitive expedition. First name and last name. How many people are living here?”. This is how technical prime minister Ana Brnabić describes the arrival of an international commission formed to investigate election irregularities in Serbia to the viewers of a TV broadcaster with a nationwide coverage. All the mocking does not change the fact that this is the scenario that, before the constituent session of the Belgrade City Assembly, the Progressives are most of all trying to avoid. After a clear and scathing resolution of the European Parliament, stating that a country vying for EU membership cannot hold elections such as those on December 17, 2023, the ODIHR report can only cement the Europe’s clear message: “Knock, knock. Vučić, that’s enough!”.
Until February 19, Aleksandar Vučić has hours and hours to think about whether to form a government in Belgrade or hold new elections.
The very proposal for the arrival of an international commission has caused panic and anxiety among the highest officials of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Obviously, because the commission would have to knock on numerous doors at the addresses with suspicious numbers of voters. In the current atmosphere, new elections can be the least bad scenario for getting out of the crisis for President Aleksandar Vučić – because even the SNS’ best spin doctors are clearly unable to derail the unrelenting demands to investigate the allegations of electoral fraud.
And that was the reason behind the prime minister’s second linguistic finesse. She announced that there would most likely be a call for new – not repeated - elections in Belgrade, adding that “not a single vote was stolen”. In other words, there will be elections because the SNS does not have the majority in the Belgrade City Assembly. This scenario would be a small victory in the defeat for the Progressives. Only a small piece of the puzzle is missing: how will they persuade their voters that there is no majority when it is already clear to everyone that there is, thanks to those who switched their allegiances.
Nestorović’s three-headed inflatable dragon
New room for maneuvering in this field was provided to Vučić one week before the session, perhaps unintentionally, by Branimir Nestorović, the uncrowned leader of the “We – Voice of the People” movement (Mi – Glas iz naroda). The December elections’ sensation deflated like a balloon and fell into three parts, in the 2-2-2 formation. This list’s candidates for the Belgrade Assembly are now in factions, grouped around Aleksandar Jerković, Branimir Nestorović and five founding members. Technically, any faction of this three-headed dragon would be enough for Vučić to form the government. As a result, he would be able to rule Belgrade with the Movement (any of its parts) and make good on his vow, which he repeated several times, that he would not form government with the “switchers”.
Representatives of the Movement, which most likely fell apart due to a quarrel over the distribution of money, were generally not in the mood to go on record about the outcome immediately before the session, or, as one of them told NIN: “I don’t feel good about reaching over into someone else’s plate” So, what’s on the menu? Will they be in power with the SNS?
Jerković has already been labeled in the public as a switcher, but does he (still) have the invitation? It doesn’t appear so. Nestorović kept repeating from the first day that he would join neither the government nor the opposition, but at the same time, he often supported Vučić in his attacks on the opposition. The controversial doctor was unwilling to talk to NIN about his plans ahead of the session. The third faction is still of the opinion that there will be no government with the SNS, as one of the five Movement founders Branko Pavlović told NIN.
TANJUG / Dragan Kujundžić
“We are confident about our two members from Obrenovac. If they wanted to trade, they would have already done that. Jerković and the member who supports him would have backed the city government if they had been offered. At the meeting, when he said was leaving the movement, Nestorović said that he and his new organization are going to new elections. I can’t read anything into that, or claim any indication of their intentions. It seems to me that only the government will benefit from this, and that Vučić will go to elections now, when the people’s expectations from “Mi – Glas iz naroda” are so low, Pavlović told NIN.
However, even if the two factions besides Nestorović’s would want to join the government, the president of the temporary governing body of the City of Belgrade Aleksandar Šapić wouldn’t want them. Appearing on Happy TV, he said that as far as the SNS was concerned, only Nestorović had the legitimacy, and that he was still waiting for him. However, his words about legitimacy can easily be stretched, if need be. And that is, actually, what this split is all about. Who has the legitimacy – the person whose popularity led to a good result in the elections, or the person who remained true to the movement? It can be any of them, none, one, the other. Whatever suits Vučić when he is creating his narrative about the election decision.
Capillary votes and sprint start
While the opposition is on a European diplomatic offensive, there are many indicators that the SNS is preparing for a pre-election sprint start. It’s no secret that members of the SNS received orders to start collecting the so-called “capillary votes”. The plans to transfer the authority over the EXPO 2027 project, the key job for the government in the coming period, to the level of the Republic, indicate that there is considerable uncertainty about the formation of the Belgrade government.
By the time this article was completed, the ODIHR report was already at 11, Nemanjina St. but also in the hands of the opposition. The report, to which NIN had access, makes 25 recommendations, including seven that are marked as priority.
„To address concerns over the accuracy of voter lists and increase public confidence, the relevant laws, regulations, and practices should be reconsidered to enable access to voter registration data and facilitate the conduct of a meaningful audit of the Unified Voter Register with the participation of relevant stakeholders, including political parties and civil society, in line with data protection standards”, is one of the main recommendations in the report.
The report also states that the allegations of numerous deceased persons remaining on the register, as well as claims of large-scale voter migration in relation to local elections “significantly eroded public trust in the accuracy of the Unified Voter Register”. It also notes that this trust was further impaired by a lack of a comprehensive response from the authorities.
The opposition underscores that the report depicts the truth and the picture of the Serbian society viewed through the lens of elections. President of the People’s Movement of Serbia (Narodni pokret Srbije) Miroslav Aleksić told N1 that the international commission is necessary and that Belgrade elections must be repeated because of the fraud, and not because of Nestorović. “Anything else would be an attempt to fool the people of Serbia and divert their attention from the truth”, says Aleksić.
Of course, the decision on calling elections in Belgrade depends on the SNS’ assessment of whether that would cause protests, whether there is a clear demand to revise the voter lists, whether an investigation will be launched in Brussels or not, and on what the public opinion polls say... The same goes for the calculations about the election date, which can be set in the period from late April to early May. Considering that the anniversary of the tragedies in “Ribnikar” and Dubona is May 3rd, the Progressives would certainly prefer an earlier date. It could be April 21st or, perhaps ideally, April 28th, the day of the Belgrade Marathon when half the city will be blocked.
In any case, the pressure related to the arrival of an international commission will not go away even if new elections are called. The only question is if Vučić is ready to gamble and go forward with the formation of an illegitimate government on the foundations of loud accusations of voter fraud, and risk damaging the relations with Europe.
The time is running out and the answer to the question of what comes after “knock, knock” is becoming clearer.
